China Purchase Agreement

Data Sharing Notice: This update is based on data of 25 November 2020 published on 25 November 2020 for Chinese and US exports – provisional data on US exports to China, which are monitored under the agreement, are now published before the full release scheduled for 7 December 2020. The next update will be based on data from November 2020, which will be published on December 25, 2020 (Chinese imports) and December 23, 2020 (U.S. exports). Provisional U.S. export data for October were zero for aircraft (harmonized customs plan 8800 and 8802); All revisions to the data will be included in a review that was published on December 7. Chinese customs reported that imports of Chinese aircraft (8802) were only $506 million in October. Assessing progress in achieving the Phase 1 targets for merchandise trade requires information from both U.S. export and import statistics, as Chapter 6 of the agreement, Article 6.2.6, states that „official Chinese trade data and official U.S. trade data are used to determine whether this chapter has been implemented.“ One consequence is that there are two sets of monthly data to follow (Chinese imports and U.S. exports).

A second is that there are two different annual targets, and therefore monthly, given that the basic level of Chinese imports in 2017 deviates from the initial level of U.S. exports for 2017. Finally, the products covered by the purchase commitments are listed in the appendix of the Schedule 6.1 agreement at levels of 4, 6, 8 or 10 digits; These will then be ranked in U.S. or Chinese trade statistics for 2017 and 2020. As of our October 26, 2020 report, we have included the U.S. export product 8800 (in addition to 8802 aircraft) in „secure manufacturing“ and total, and we have relocated it out of the „uncovered“ category. As of October 2020, total imports of covered products from the United States were $75.5 billion compared to an annual target of $137.3 billion by October. Over the same period, U.S. exports of covered goods to China totaled $70.3 billion, compared to an annual target of $125.4 billion. In the first ten months of 2020, purchases of all products covered by China were only 56% (U.S.

exports) or 55% (Chinese imports) of their previous targets. With respect to merchandise exports to the United States, the agreement is estimated to include $95.1 billion in goods, or 73% of total U.S. merchandise exports to China ($129.8 billion) in 2017. Of total exports of covered products in 2017, exports amounted to $20.9 billion for agriculture, $66.5 billion for manufacturing and $7.6 billion for energy. The products discovered by the agreement – and therefore without a 2020 target – accounted for 27% ($34.7 billion) of total U.S. goods exports to China in 2017. This PIIE map, originally released on May 18, 2020, tracks China`s monthly purchases of U.S. goods under the U.S.-China Phase 1 Agreement. On February 14, 2020, the economic and trade agreement between the United States of America and the People`s Republic of China came into force: Phase 1. China has agreed to increase the purchase of certain U.S.

goods and services to a total of $200 billion in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2017. This PIIE graph tracks China`s monthly purchases of U.S. products covered by the agreement, based on data from Chinese Customs (Chinese imports) and the U.S. Census Bureau (U.S. exports). These purchases are then compared to the annual targets of the legal agreement, which are established monthly on the basis of seasonal adjustments on two basic scenarios (see methodology below). As stated in the legal agreement, a baseline scenario for 2017 allows the use of U.S. statistics

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